Appreciation Velocity — Surprise, AZ
Home-price appreciation in Surprise, AZ plus ZIPs within the city ranked by 1Y growth.
Public Record
Surprise · 1Y appreciation
+15.3%
Surprise · 3Y appreciation
-2.2%
Surprise · 5Y appreciation
-61.9%
Surprise · 10Y appreciation
+105.9%
Top 10 — 5Y appreciation (Zips)
#1 · ZIP 85388
+63.0%
#2 · ZIP 85378
+21.8%
#3 · ZIP 85023
+13.1%
#4 · ZIP 85379
+9.5%
#5 · ZIP 85374
-7.5%
#6 · ZIP 85387
-80.9%
Zip ranking — 5Y appreciation (highest first)
| # | Zip | State | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | Current median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ZIP 85388 | AZ | +23.8% | +15.1% | +63.0% | +198.4% | $672.9K |
| 2 | ZIP 85378 | AZ | +32.5% | -12.9% | +21.8% | +140.0% | $269.8K |
| 3 | ZIP 85023 | AZ | -16.9% | -10.1% | +13.1% | +151.7% | $480.8K |
| 4 | ZIP 85379 | AZ | -5.2% | -21.3% | +9.5% | +37.9% | $444.5K |
| 5 | ZIP 85374 | AZ | -10.0% | -37.3% | -7.5% | +88.6% | $354.3K |
| 6 | ZIP 85387 | AZ | +53.7% | -45.3% | -80.9% | +115.5% | $679.9K |
How to read these numbers
Velocity vs. level
A market with 25% one-year appreciation is moving fast — but a market with steady 6% over ten years has compounded much further. Use 10Y as the long-run signal, 1Y as the momentum signal.
Mean-reversion risk
Markets that posted huge 1Y and 3Y gains often cool over the next cycle. Compare 1Y to 5Y: if 1Y is far above 5Y, the trend is accelerating; if far below, it is decelerating — often the more important signal.
Sample sanity
We require a minimum current median price (default $50K) to filter out tiny ZIPs with noisy data. Raise that threshold for serious investment markets; lower it to find emerging niches. Source: public record.